When Will the Majority of Taxis Be Self-Driving? What Experts Predict
Updated: August 2025
Executive Summary
Robotaxi services are no longer science fiction—Waymo has surpassed
100 million driverless miles
and millions of paid rides across several U.S. cities, while China is writing national rules to let fully driverless services operate commercially. Still, most analysts do not expect self-driving vehicles to dominate taxi fleets quickly. Based on current deployments, regulations, and market forecasts, a realistic outlook is:
Late 2020s: Larger, multi-neighborhood services in a handful of cities; volumes remain a small fraction of total taxi/rideshare trips.
Early–mid 2030s: Some leading metros (especially in China and a few U.S. cities) could see significant robotaxi share, but still far from a majority of all taxi trips.
Late 2030s–2040s: If safety data, costs, and regulations keep trending favorably, multiple large cities could cross the “majority robotaxi” threshold; global majority will take longer.
Where Things Stand Today (2025)
Waymo operates paid, rider-only robotaxi service across Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Austin, having logged
over 10 million paid trips.
These numbers prove viability but remain niche compared to the volume of traditional taxi and rideshare rides.
The path hasn’t been linear. GM’s Cruise—once viewed as a co-leader—halted U.S. operations after safety incidents
(New York Times),
showing that technical performance, safety culture, and public trust remain decisive.
China is moving assertively. Beijing finalized national rules that define the scope of “highly automated” operations and enable wider commercial services
(South China Morning Post),
building on pilots in cities like Wuhan and Beijing. Analysts expect China’s centralized rule-making to accelerate scaled deployments.
In the UK, Parliament passed the
Automated Vehicles Act 2024,
aiming to allow certified self-driving services on roads as early as 2026.
What Experts & Forecasts Say About Timelines
Most mainstream forecasts point to gradual adoption rather than a sudden flip to majority robotaxi usage:
Vehicle mix in 2030: Goldman Sachs projects Level-4 capable vehicles will make up only a
single-digit percentage of sales by 2030.
This suggests replacement of legacy fleets will be measured, not rapid.
Operator scale today: Even leading services like Waymo, despite millions of rides, still represent a
tiny fraction of urban mobility demand. That gap illustrates how far the industry must scale to reach “majority.”
Regulatory gating: Jurisdictions are creating formal approval regimes (UK’s 2026 target; China’s national framework),
but the U.S. remains city- and state-driven. Divergent rules add time and cost to expansion.
Pulling these threads together, experts suggest that the majority of taxi trips in a given city could plausibly be autonomous in the
late 2030s or 2040s—first in a few favorable metros—while a global majority will arrive later.
That reflects production forecasts, regulatory pacing, and the time required to replace existing fleets.
What Must Be True to Reach “Majority”
Safety outperformance is proven and sustained in mixed traffic, bad weather, and across new geographies.
Unit economics beat human-driven services at scale—vehicle cost, maintenance, insurance, and operations must all align.
Regulatory pathways normalize across countries, not just in pilot cities.
Public acceptance remains high after inevitable incidents or recalls.
Manufacturing & service networks scale to thousands of vehicles per metro.
City-by-City Scenarios
China: With national rules in place, multiple cities could see high robotaxi shares in the 2030s if operators sustain growth.
United States: Waymo’s momentum is meaningful, but setbacks like Cruise’s collapse highlight volatility. Expect metro-by-metro growth in the 2030s.
United Kingdom: National legislation aims to launch self-driving taxis as soon as 2026–2028, with share building into the 2030s.
Bottom Line
Robotaxis are real, scaling, and—in certain districts—already convenient. But the best reading of expert forecasts and today’s operating experience is that a
majority of taxi trips being self-driven will be a multi-decade transition.
Look for notable milestones in the 2030s (larger fleets, more cities, clearer rules),
with the “majority” threshold crossed first in a handful of metros before becoming commonplace globally.
Keep Work Zones Safer During the Transition
As cities pilot and scale autonomous taxi services, proven, highly visible roadway gear remains essential for protecting crews and road users.
Equip your sites with dependable products from Traffic Safety Store:
Traffic Cones for lane control and high-visibility channelization.
Safety Vests to keep workers seen in mixed human/robotaxi traffic.
