When will driverless trucks rule the highways? What experts predict
The first truly driverless freight routes are starting to launch in the U.S., but “majority on the highway” is still years away. Here’s where deployments stand now, what experts forecast, and the milestones that must fall into place before autonomous trucks become the dominant long-haul option.
Where things stand today
Level-4 “hub-to-hub” trucking (autonomy on interstates between terminals, with humans handling yard and local driving) is moving from pilot to commercial launch:- Aurora says it has begun a commercial, paid service in Texas without a human driver on board, moving freight on set lanes for pilot customers and targeting scaling on multiple lanes in 2025. Company announcement
- Kodiak Robotics completed fully driverless runs on public highways and has signaled expansion of commercial operations. Independent reporting
- Torc Robotics (a Daimler Truck company) is validating driver-out performance and points to a commercial launch window later this decade. Company update
Texas is the early beachhead thanks to highway geometry, freight density, and state laws allowing driverless operation with an approved safety case. Texas Transportation Code • Regulatory overview
What the experts predict
Forecasts vary, but cluster around a phased 2025-2040 rollout on limited interstate corridors first, followed by broader network coverage:- Near term (2025-2027): Corridor-specific services in the U.S. Sun Belt (e.g., Texas triangle) scaling from dozens to a few hundred tractors as safety cases mature and freight customers commit to dedicated lanes. Industry analysis
- 2028-2032: Multi-state networks linking major freight hubs; meaningful but still minority share of long-haul linehaul miles. Financial press outlook
- Early-to-mid 2030s: Double-digit percent of new Class-8 sales configured for autonomy; some analysts see low-teens share of the U.S. truck fleet being autonomous around 2035, concentrated in long-haul. Analyst estimate
- Late 2030s to 2040: In higher-adoption scenarios, autonomous trucks could be a common sight—and plausibly a majority—on specific interstate corridors, though not necessarily for all freight use-cases. An earlier expert report anticipated driverless trucks becoming a “regular presence on many roads within ten years,” foreshadowing the current commercial step-ups. OECD-ITF report
What could accelerate—or slow—the timeline
Regulation and standards
Federal motor-carrier rules for automated driving systems (ADS) are evolving. State policy already enables driver-out trucking in several jurisdictions, but consistent, nationwide guardrails (remote operations, inspections, maintenance, and incident reporting) will influence how fast fleets scale. FMCSA rulemaking docketSafety record transparency
Large-scale adoption depends on clear safety cases and public reporting—miles driven, disengagements, and incident data—validated by independent oversight and insurers.Economics and network design
Hub-to-hub autonomy offers savings from 24/7 asset utilization and fuel-efficient driving, but requires terminal networks, transfer yards, and maintained high-definition maps. Early deployments will favor dense freight lanes with reliable weather windows.So, when will driverless trucks “rule” the highways?
| Scenario | What it looks like | Plausible timing |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | Rapid regulatory harmonization; strong safety data; dozens of lanes across Sun Belt and Midwest; autonomous tractors a major share of new long-haul sales. | Late 2030s → majority of linehaul miles on key interstates. |
| Base case | Steady corridor expansion; mixed fleets; autonomy favored for predictable long-haul, with humans handling first/last mile. | Early-to-mid 2040s to see “majority on selected corridors,” not everywhere. |
| Conservative | Patchwork regulation and slower safety validation; adoption limited to a minority of lanes and specialized freight. | Beyond 2045 for majority status, if ever nationwide. |
Bottom line: The first commercial driverless lanes are here today. A realistic expectation is material network share in the early-to-mid 2030s and “majority on major corridors” closer to the late 2030s or 2040s—contingent on safety performance, regulatory clarity, and economics.
What it means for fleets and communities
- Operations: Plan for hub-to-hub transfer points, maintenance procedures for ADS, and new duty cycles.
- Workforce: Demand grows for terminal drivers, technicians, and remote operations—alongside new training paths for experienced CDL holders.
- Safety & infrastructure: Consistent lane markings, resilient work-zone control, and clear incident-response protocols remain essential as mixed traffic persists for decades.
For work-zone and corridor safety products that support both human-driven and autonomous operations, visit the Traffic Safety Store.